EU unveils roadmap to ensure energy independence from Russia
The EU plans to eliminate its reliance on Russian energy by halting imports of Russian gas and oil and gradually phasing out Russian nuclear energy, while maintaining stable energy supplies and prices across the Union through the implementation of a new REPowerEU Roadmap.
The European Commission on 6 May presented the REPowerEU Roadmap, aiming to ensure the EU’s full energy independence from Russia. As announced, the EU has dropped its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, thanks to the REPowerEU Plan that was launched in May 2022 to reduce the EU’s dependency on Russian energy. However, the EU saw a rebound in Russian gas imports in 2024.
The roadmap will see a gradual removal of Russian oil, gas and nuclear energy from the EU markets in a coordinated and secure manner as the EU transitions to clean energy. Additionally, EU countries will prepare national plans by the end of 2025 setting out how they will contribute to phasing out imports of Russian gas, nuclear energy and oil.
At the same time, efforts will continue to accelerate the EU’s energy transition and diversify energy supplies to eliminate risks to the security of supply and market stability.
The roadmap includes measures to:
- gas: stop all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 by improving the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets. New contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented and spot contracts (for immediate payment) will be stopped by the end of 2025.
- oil: take fresh action to address Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ (vessels employed by Russia to evade sanctions) transporting oil
- nuclear: restrict new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia
Impact of phase out of Russian gas
Since the beginning of the crisis the EU has been increasingly reliant on LNG, which played a fundamental role in replacing Russian gas imports and currently accounts for about 40% of the EU imports. As a result, the EU gas prices are now more exposed to the dynamics of LNG markets which are global in scope.
As of 2025, the LNG global supply is set to grow at increasingly high pace, with 25-30 bcm of additional capacity in 2025, around 60 bcm in 2026, around 80 bcm in 2027, and around 40 bcm in 2028.This will increase the total LNG capacity by about 200 bcm by 2028, five times more than the EU imports of Russian gas (IEA (January 2025) “Gas Market Report, Q1-2025). According to the IEA (IEA (October 2024) ‘World Energy Outlook 2024’), this will determine a surplus of at least 130 bcm of LNG by 2030 and this is set to ‘depress international gas prices’.
While some uncertainty remains about the timing for the new LNG projects to become operational, if implemented in alignment with global market developments and reliable suppliers, the phase out of Russian gas imports is expected to have limited impact on European energy prices and security of supply.
In view of the expected deployment of new liquefaction capacity, it is sensible to start with spot supplies (around one third of overall Russian imports). The additional expected export capacity available globally by 2026 (+85-90 bcm/y) should be largely sufficient to compensate for the spot volume that the EU would no longer source from Russia. Moreover, large part of the EU’s Russian spot supply is LNG and its removal would likely lead to a reshuffling of LNG trades between regions with no significant alteration of the supply available globally.
As the global balance improves (+165-170 bcm/y of new liquefaction capacity by 2027) and more domestic production becomes available in the EU (Neptun Deep field), the EU could safely complete the phase out of the remaining Russian gas currently under long-term contracts (20-25 bcm/y). A longer lead-time would also enable European buyers to rearrange existing contracts and, if required, to sign new contracts for alternative supplies.
With REPowerEU, we have diversified our energy supply and drastically reduced Europe’s former dependency on Russian fossil fuels. It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier.
…said Ursula von der Leyen, Commission President.
Furthermore, by phasing out Russian energy, the REPowerEU roadmap will reduce the security risks the EU is facing. It will also contribute to the economic plan set out by the Competitiveness Compass, the Clean Industrial Deal and the Affordable energy action plan. A cleaner and independent energy system helps boost the economy while also making a huge contribution to Europe’s decarbonisation ambitions.
The Commission will put forward legislative proposals to support the roadmap next month.
We do this to preserve our security. But it is also an important step towards becoming energy independent. Producing our own clean affordable energy instead of importing expensive fossils fuels.
…said Dan Jørgensen, Commissioner for Energy and Housing.
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