Sea-Intelligence: Transatlantic is poised for a crash

The Transatlantic Westbound trade is already under significant pressure. Spot rates from Rotterdam to New York are now lower than at any point in the measurable past, apart from the extreme dip in late 2023.

This is compounded by weakening demand, with demand growth turning negative Y/Y in September 2025. Despite this, current forward-looking schedules point to the shipping lines injecting substantial capacity into the trade, which will very likely have a destabilising impact.

To assess the impact, we calculated the nominal vessel utilization based on historical demand and capacity and then projected it forward. The projection uses the shipping lines’ own planned capacity deployments for the coming 12 weeks against two different demand scenarios. The first is a 0% demand growth scenario, while the second is an optimistic 5% growth scenario. The 0% demand growth scenario in itself is potentially optimistic, should the effects of the US trade war continue. In both cases, vessel utilization is projected to “crash” to historically low levels, dropping well below the 2018-2019 pre-pandemic normal. 

Based on an 80% correlation between utilisation and spot rates (the latter lagged by 28 weeks), the projection shows a rate drop into negative territory. While rates will obviously not turn negative, the model’s trajectory indicates the market is poised to become so dire that shipping lines will be forced to withdraw significant capacity, to establish a better balance. Cargo owners on the trade should therefore prepare for the strong likelihood that many planned vessel departures in the coming months will be cancelled.

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