Global bunker indices extend gains in Week 05

Following the results of the 5th week, global bunker indices published by MABUX continued their upward trajectory. The 380 HSFO index increased by US$ 8.78, rising from US$ 415.14/MT last week to US$ 423.92/MT. The VLSFO index gained US$ 8.46, climbing from US$ 494.58/MT to US$ 503.04/MT and once again surpassing the US$ 500/MT threshold.

The MGO LS index recorded the strongest growth, adding US$ 23.06 and increasing from US$ 753.46/MT last week to US$ 776.52/MT. At the time of writing, the global bunker market continued to demonstrate a moderate upward movement, according to Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—defined as the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued to narrow, declining by US$ 0.32 from US$ 79.44 last week to US$ 79.12. The spread remains firmly below the psychological threshold of US$ 100.00 (SS breakeven), while the weekly average value of the index decreased by US$ 1.27. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread also contracted by US$ 8.00, falling from US$ 56.00 last week to US$ 48.00 and dropping below the US$ 50.00 level. The port’s weekly average SS value declined by US$ 5.67.

In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential decreased by US$ 10.00, from US$ 71.00 last week to US$ 61.00, while the weekly average value in the port fell by US$ 6.50. As a result, SS Spread indices resumed their downward trend this week. Under current global bunker market conditions, conventional VLSFO continues to remain more cost-effective than the combination of 380 HSFO plus scrubber operation. Nevertheless, the present decline in the SS Spread to be temporary, and index values may begin to recover in the short term, according to Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX.

By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) remained unchanged at US$ 75.00, despite reaching US$ 90.00 earlier in the week. At the same time, the weekly average value of the index increased by US$ 20.83. In Venice, the ECA Spread continued to narrow, declining by US$ 34.00 from US$ 99.00 to US$ 65.00, while the weekly average value decreased by US$ 15.67. Overall, ES dynamics in both ports remain downward, with spreads consolidating in the US$ 75.00–65.00 range. This movement occurred against a backdrop of rising ULSFO prices, driven by a slight reduction in regional supply and, consequently, tighter market availability. Meanwhile, MGO prices remained relatively stable, supported by more balanced supply–demand fundamentals. ”We believe that as ULSFO supply increases, ECA Spread values are likely to stabilize again around the US$ 100.00 level”, commented Sergey Ivanov.

According to Kpler, around 37 million tons per year of new LNG production capacity could come online this year, in addition to the 51 million tons commissioned last year. This expansion in supply is expected to put downward pressure on prices, which could in turn dampen purchasing activity across Asia, particularly in China. However, potentially lower prices may also stimulate Chinese LNG import demand, which is projected to rise to 73 million tons this year from 68.43 million tons in 2025. Europe, meanwhile, imported well over 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas last year. For the current year, Kpler forecasts a further substantial increase in supplies, with total imports expected to reach approximately 145 million tons by the end of 2026. Additional challenges for the global LNG market this year include the restart of additional nuclear reactors in Japan—where energy security considerations have outweighed concerns over a potential repeat of the Fukushima accident—and China’s ongoing efforts to increase domestic natural gas production.

As of January 27, European regional gas storage facilities were filled to 44.23%, down by 4.89 percentage points from the previous week. Gas withdrawals accelerated in January amid colder-than-usual weather across most European countries, with withdrawal rates reaching their highest level over the past five years. At the same time, storage levels are already 17.23 percentage points below those recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). By the end of week 5, the European TTF gas benchmark continued its upward trend, increasing by €2.574/MWh to €38.761/MWh from €35.887/MWh last week, temporarily exceeding the €40.000/MWh threshold.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) continued its sharp upward trajectory this week, rising by a further US$ 150.00 to US$ 979/MT, compared with US$ 829/MT last week. As a result, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel widened to US$ 243 in favor of conventional fuel. MGO LS was assessed at US$ 736/MT at the port of Sines on January 26.

By the end of week 5, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—reflecting the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—indicated undervaluation across all bunker fuel grades in the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: Average weekly MDI undervaluation decreased by 6 points in Rotterdam, 13 points in Singapore, 18 points in Fujairah, and 2 points in Houston.

• VLSFO segment: The MDI remained unchanged in Rotterdam and Fujairah, while declining by 6 points in Singapore and 4 points in Houston. Notably, the Houston MDI remains close to the 100% parity level between MBP and DBP.

• MGO LS segment: Fujairah returned to undervaluation territory, resulting in all four ports showing undervaluation in this fuel category. The MDI increased by 1 point in Rotterdam, 10 points in Singapore, 20 points in Fujairah, and 30 points in Houston.

Overall, by the end of the reporting week, the undervaluation trend once again became dominant across all bunker fuel segments, and we expect this tendency to persist into the coming week. ”We expect the current upward momentum in global bunker market prices is likely to persist in the coming week”, added Ivanov.

The post Global bunker indices extend gains in Week 05 appeared first on Container News.