Hapag-Lloyd expects earnings decline amid Middle East conflict

German container line Hapag-Lloyd expects earnings in 2026 to be lower than in 2025 as disrupted trade flows and higher costs from the Middle East conflict slowing market growth.

Based on the demand situation and the development of freight rates at the beginning of the year, the container line expects Group Ebitda for the 2026 financial year to be in a range of $1.1 to $3.1bln (prior year: $3.6bln) and Group Ebit to be in a range of US$ –1.5 to US$ 0.5bln (prior year: $1.1bln).

In euro terms, this corresponds to an expected Group Ebitda of €0.9 to €2.6bln (prior year: €3.2bln) and Group Ebit of Euro –1.3 to Euro 0.4bln (prior year: €1.0bln).

This outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty, the company said, due to the highly volatile development of freight rates and the conflict in the Middle East.

Rolf Habben Jansen, chief executive officer of Hapag-Lloyd AG, said: “At the beginning of 2026, adverse weather conditions weighed on our performance and the conflict in the Middle East is now causing considerable network disruptions and sharply increasing operational costs.

“Against this backdrop, we expect earnings in 2026 to be lower than in 2025. We will leverage increasing synergies from our Gemini network and accelerate our cost savings initiatives to counter these headwinds. Our customers can rest assured that we will do everything in our power to keep their supply chains intact. At the same time, we will maintain our growth trajectory by expanding our terminals portfolio under the Hanseatic Global Terminals brand and working decisively toward a successful completion of our merger agreement with ZIM.”

Since the conflict began in the Middle East, container shipping operators been forced to suspend major sea routes to the region and reroute ships on longer paths to avoid conflict zones.

CEO Rolf Habben Jansen noted that adverse weather conditions at the start of 2026 and the ongoing Middle East conflict have disrupted operations and increased costs, leading to expectations of lower profitability compared to 2025.

Asked in an interview how confident he is about the current financial year, the chief executive said the situation today is probably more uncertain than ever, as the geopolitical environment continues to be complex and container shipping remains a highly competitive industry.

Specifically, he said: “For liner shipping – despite increasing transport volumes, our focus on quality, and very strong schedule reliability – we expect a decline in operating results. This is mainly due to slower market growth, additional capacity influx, lower freight rates and geopolitical pressure. We will be able to partially offset these effects through cost savings. In the Terminal & Infrastructure segment, we expect improved results driven by efficiency gains, synergies, and positive effects from acquisitions. Thanks to the expertise and dedication of our employees, we will continue to work step by step toward our goals this year.”