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Fri, May

FuelEU Maritime: Smarter Compliance Could Unlock a $279 Million Upside for Shipping

FuelEU Maritime: Smarter Compliance Could Unlock a $279 Million Upside for Shipping

MARINELOG

As the FuelEU Maritime regulation enters into force, the shipping industry may be looking at a surprising upside. Instead of acting solely as a cost driver, the regulation could create a net

As the FuelEU Maritime regulation enters into force, the shipping industry may be looking at a surprising upside. Instead of acting solely as a cost driver, the regulation could create a net financial gain, potentially around USD$279 million (€250 million), according to a recent analysis by maritime data and compliance firm OceanScore.

OceanScore’s analysis focuses on the balance of GHG intensity compliance under FuelEU. The initial compliance deficit across vessels exceeding the regulation’s threshold is estimated at around 2.1 million metric tons (MT) of CO₂e, while more efficient vessels—mainly LNG and LPG carriers—generate a surplus of about 1.3 million MT of CO₂e.

That leaves a net compliance gap of roughly 0.8 million MT, which is likely to be closed using biofuels. These fuels, such as UCOME, have a lower calorific value and higher price point, but offer the advantage of emissions reduction credits and corresponding savings under the EU ETS.

At today’s prices, factoring in the ETS phase-in rate of 70% and current exchange rates, covering this compliance gap via biofuels is expected to cost the industry around USD$223 million (€200 million), or USD$257 (€230) per MT of CO₂e. While that’s not insignificant, it’s a relatively modest figure for an

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