The IEA’s medium-term outlook sees global oil supply increase set to far outpace demand growth in coming years.With intensifying geopolitical strains and heightened uncertainty about global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing
The IEA’s medium-term outlook sees global oil supply increase set to far outpace demand growth in coming years.
With intensifying geopolitical strains and heightened uncertainty about global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing structural changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to fade, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s medium-term outlook.
According to the report, China – which has driven the growth in global oil demand for well over a decade – is set to see its consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the continued deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas.
At the same time, US oil supply is now expected to grow at a slower pace as companies scale back spending and focus on capital discipline – although the United States remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth in the coming years.
In this context, global oil demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade.
Global oil production capacity is forecast to
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