Trucking Market Shows Signs of Recovery After Long Downturn

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PHOENIX — The trucking industry is emerging from a difficult market, and the headwinds that have plagued the industry are beginning to weaken as freight volumes improve and capacity leaves the market, experts said.

“I think we are going to get back to normal, and things are going to get better,” said Bob Costello, chief economist of American Trucking Associations, during the Truckload Carriers Association’s Truckload 2025 conference. “It’s not going to be the pandemic boom, but we are absolutely moving in the right direction.”

Costello said carriers describe the current operating environment as the most challenging they’ve ever experienced, with rates and volumes down but costs continuing to rise. “For the macro economy, that’s what we call stagflation. It is the worst place to be, but that’s exactly where you’ve been,” he said.

He noted that the sustained nature of the recent downturn has been especially draining, even though rates didn’t fall as far as they have in past downturns. “In the period we’ve just gone through, we didn’t even fall 10%, but it lasted 27 months,” Costello said. “That is just a slow, slow tearing off of the Band-Aid and why it felt so bad.”

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“I think we’re all flabbergasted with how long this has lasted,” added Dave Williams, senior vice president of equipment and government relations for Knight-Swift Transportation, during a panel discussion featuring large carriers. Knight-Swift ranks No. 7 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America.

“Frustrated. Fatigued. There are a lot of different ways to describe how we