Indian and Pakistani Navies Deploy as Tensions Rise

In the wake of a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, in which 26 tourists were killed by gunmen, both India and Pakistan have put their forces on alert in the expectation that India will launch reprisal attacks and that Pakistan will respond.

The attack in Kashmir’s southern district of Anantnag was the first such act of terrorism since October 2001, when terrorists killed 35 people outside the Jammu and Kashmir state legislature. But tension between India and Pakistan over the status of Jammu and Kashmir has existed since independence, when after fighting a defacto border was established, leaving most of the province in Indian hands. The two countries then fought wars in 1947–1948, 1965, 1971, and 1999, with the status of Jammu and Kashmir the principal source of contention. The first two wars were draws, with numerically superior India gaining the upper hand in 1971 and 1999.

India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty, under which river waters are shared; has expelled Pakistani nationals and defense attaché staff; and has closed border crossing points. Pakistan has replied by taking similar measures.

Since Pakistan matched India’s nuclear capability in 1988, both countries have had to balance a desire to take robust military action against the risk that fighting will escalate out of control and threaten the use of nuclear weapons.

Naval warfare played a major role in the 1971 war, with Indian carrier-borne aircraft crippling the Pakistani naval presence in the East, and the Pakistani navy in the West largely neutralized by missile boat attacks. The Pakistani submarine PNS/M Hangor (S-131) did manage to sink the Indian frigate INS Khukri (F149) and damage a second, INS Kirpan (F144). In the 1999 war, India successfully imposed a naval blockade on Pakistan’s principal port of Karachi, and the resulting shortage of imported fuel was a factor in Pakistan accepting the ceasefire that ended the war.

#AreaWarning#Pakistan issues a notification for firing by naval ships in the Arabian Sea Region south of Karachi

Dates | 26-27 April 2025 pic.twitter.com/Zr4XHHA5Ct

— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) April 26, 2025

If relations worsen further, the Indian Navy is likely to attempt to impose another naval blockade as a passive option with less escalatory risk, and deployments are likely to have taken place accordingly. Whilst most deployments will be kept secret, the Indian Navy’s carrier INS Vikrant (R11) was spotted off the coast of Goa on April 23. The Indian Navy also has five operation Kilo-class submarines, and up to ten smaller Scorpene and Type-209 diesel electric attack submarines.

Pakistan has issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen/Mariners) for the Arabian Sea and initiated a naval live fire exercise, blocking a large sea area on the Exclusive Economic Zone border between the two countries and covering the sea approaches to Karachi. Pakistan can deploy up to eight French-built Agosta-70 and Agosta 90B Class submarines.

Potentially, both Indian and Pakistani precautionary naval deployments may impinge on commercial traffic, although international maritime transit routes can be adjusted southward to avoid potential areas of conflict.