Forecast Indicates Decline in U.S. Container Imports Amid Tariff Pressures

According to the latest report from the Global Port Tracker,U.S. imports are projected to drop by at least 20% compared to last year as we move into fall,with an overall annual decline exceeding 10% likely.

This marks a significant shift, as May is expected to show the first year-over-year decrease in import cargo at major container ports in over eighteen months. The ongoing impact of tariffs introduced during President TrumpS management is becoming increasingly evident.jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, noted that these tariffs—ranging from national security measures affecting canada and Mexico to broader global tariffs—are driving up costs for businesses and leading to reduced cargo volumes. ultimately, consumers will feel this pinch through higher prices and less product availability.

The timing of these tariffs has been notably challenging for retailers who are now reconsidering their orders. Many small businesses are feeling uncertain about how best to navigate future inventory needs amidst this shifting landscape.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom; Ben Hackett from Hackett Associates pointed out that trade isn’t entirely halted. “Container shipping companies are adjusting by reducing voyages and consolidating shipments,” he explained. This strategy helps them keep their vessels full while managing declining demand effectively. Contrary to some reports suggesting a complete breakdown of the supply chain or empty terminals, Hackett reassured that such claims don’t reflect reality.

The data shows that U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker managed 2.15 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in March—a solid increase of 5.5% from February and an remarkable rise of 11.3% year over year.

The forecast for upcoming months looks like this:

• april: Estimated at 2.2 million TEUs (up 9.1% YoY)
• May: Projected at 1.81 million TEUs (down 12.9% YoY)
• June: Expected at around 1.71 million TEUs (down over 20%)
• July: Anticipated drop further down to about 1.77 million TEUs
• August: Forecasted at approximately 1.82 million TEUs
• September: Expected around 1.79 million TEUs

This trend indicates a potential total volume of just over twelve million TEUs for the first half of next year—a slight increase compared with last year’s figures but far below earlier projections made before new tariff announcements were made public.

As last summer, imports have surged as retailers rushed shipments ahead of anticipated strikes on East Coast ports followed by fears surrounding tariff increases post-election season; thus far in 2024 imports reached 25 .5 million TEU s—an impressive jump compared with previous years but still shy of pandemic highs seen back in 2021 . p>

The Global Port Tracker provides valuable insights into historical trends along key U.S port locations including Los Angeles/Long Beach on the West Coast all way through New York/New Jersey down south towards Houston on Gulf Coast—all essential hubs shaping our nation’s trade landscape today! p >