India Has "Largely Stopped" Buying Russian Oil, Trump Says

India's refiners have "largely stopped" buying oil from Russia after U.S. pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday - a remarkable turnaround after years of Indian leadership in the Russian oil market.

For months, the Trump administration has asked India's government to curtail purchasing Russian energy exports, which help finance the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. India has a longstanding trade relationship with Russia, and its refiners (along with China's) have been absorbing the gray-market Russian barrels that were displaced from Europe in 2022.

After disappointing results in recent diplomatic engagements with the Kremlin about ending the conflict in Ukraine, Trump imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the top two oil producers in Russia. Those designations take effect on November 21, and analysts predict that India will mostly comply - confirming President Trump's understanding of the situation on the ground. Kpler reports that Mangalore Refinery, HPCL-Mittal Energy and Reliance Industries have all confirmed plans to stop buying; Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, which is Russian-owned, will likely continue buying Russian oil.

There are early signs on AIS that a slowdown in deliveries may already be happening. For the first time, two laden tankers on the sanctions list - the Kusto and the Ailana - are stalled off the coast of Mundra, India, according to maritime security data firm Windward/ Typically they would unload and return to their rotation, but they have not transited to their usual berths since their arrival in the area in late October - an unusual delay that may signify the refinery's reticence to accept the blacklisted cargo.

Though hundreds of thousands of Russian barrels may be coming off the global market, energy traders do not appear to be concerned. OPEC is formally raising its production targets, and Brent futures have been hovering in the range of $61-66 for a month, prompting concerns from other nations' oil producers about profit margins for drilling new wells.

For tanker owners in the compliant, non-Russian fleet, this is all good news. Disruption tends to increase demand, and sanctions are a leading cause. About half of all Russian oil exports now ship aboard sanctioned tonnage, Windward estimates, creating demand for "clean" tankers and raising the incentive to recruit "new" tankers into the shadow fleet. With tonnage demand high and supply constrained, tanker day rates have reached a five-year high, according to Windward.

"Very large crude carrier rates surpassed $125,000 daily on Middle East Gulf routes, according to shipbrokers, as Indian and Chinese buyers sought alternative cargoes to avoid Russian sanctions, and OPEC+ producers relaxed production curbs alongside a seasonal winter oil demand uplift," Windward wrote in a research note on Thursday. "So-called 'clean' tankers sought for Russia trading are also shrinking availability in non-sanctioned trades, underpinning stronger demand."