The Daily View: More action, not more plans

THERE are many good ideas in the European Commission’s Sustainable Transport Investment Plan. There’s plenty of impressive sounding figures and the promise of measures that could genuinely accelerate the energy transition in Europe for shipping.

The plan sets out a credible framework for financing to eventually unlock investments and scale up production of renewable and low-carbon fuels.

The only problem is we really should not be at the first step and good ideas stage of decarbonisation.

We should be seeing more action, not more plans.

We had plans. We had good ideas. We should be at the stage of putting real money on the table and seeing fuels enter the market.

Instead, we’re revisiting arguments we thought had been won more than a decade ago. We’re lamenting the loss of a consensus that had been built on science, not opinion.

The valiant remnants of a shipping delegation heading to the COP30 climate talks are nervously assessing how much has been lost and what now is possible in the fragmenting new world order where climate science is derided as a “con job”.

This is more than just mood music for shipping — this is the global context in which strategies and budgets are being assessed.

Directional nudges from the EU on how to spend the revenue generated from shipping’s contribution to the Emissions Trading Scheme are not insignificant. But STIP is still just a suggestion, not even a recommendation, and there is no clear mandate for fuel suppliers or suggestion of how the investment funding gap is going to be filled.

Once COP30 is closed and the current slew of ministerial bilaterals quietly taking place are concluded there will need to be a rapid reassessment of where shipping stands in the global context.

But don’t mistake lack of clarity for an opportunity to defer decisions.

With the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework at the IMO ostensibly on hold, but realistically in meltdown, the centre of gravity in carbon regulation is shifting, from global negotiation rooms to regional markets. Efforts like STIP matter more now than ever.

The EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime will both be reviewed in 2026/27, and neither are likely to scale back. The UK ETS remains on track for 2026, and new regional systems in Türkiye and Africa are advancing. Others will likely follow as the global consensus crumbles and regional revenues and regulations become the norm.

Meanwhile, the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy remains in force, meaning that short-term measures such as CII and EEXI could be further tightened to keep the IMO aligned with its 2030 and 2040 targets.

The climate consensus may be crumbling, but that’s not going to stop regulation kicking in and/or provide cover for delayed action. Ready or not, complex, expensive regulation is coming your way.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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