Container Imports to U.S. Expected to Remain Down Till Spring Says Retailer
The National Retail Federation issued its first outlook for 2026 imports, saying that it believes retailers are assessing what is ahead for 2026 and, as such, import levels are expected to remain down year-over-year until at least spring. While they expect a slight increase this month due to the change in timing of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, the retail trade group expects overall import levels will be down five percent year-over-year for the first five months of 2026.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
The NRF cites the “chronic uncertainty” of fluctuating tariffs and trade policies. It believes members frontloaded imports in 2025 to beat some of the expected tariff increases. Volumes also slowed as inventories remained high and concerns built about the economy.
The Global Port Tracker report projects that when the numbers are tallied for 2025, container imports will have been 25.4 million TEU. The NRF reports an expected 0.4 percent decline for the year, which is similar to a forecast of a 0.2 percent decline by Descartes Systems Group. Both cite the impact of tariffs, trade policies, and a potential cooling economic environment.
The retailers’ forecast looks for the first month-over-month gain in six months during January at 2.11 million TEU versus approximately 1.99 million TEU in December. However, it is expected to remain down year-over-year versus the 2.22 million TEU in January 2025. From there, the NRF projects monthly declines ranging between five percent to as much as 12.4 percent. They currently expect the first year-over-year gain in May at 2.07 million TEU, which will be a 6.2 percent increase.
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Bloomberg highlighted yesterday that the one positive note is that as the import levels slow, the U.S. trade gap has declined to its lowest levels since 2009. While import levels are down, the U.S. still had a $29.4 billion trade deficit in the last numbers, which were for October 2025.
Ports and other related businesses continue to experience the impact of the trade declines.
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