Cosco tankers gather in Middle East Gulf as speculation mounts over Hormuz crossing
SHARES of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping staged an unexpected rally on Tuesday amid market speculation that Chinese shipowners have received official notice to prepare for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors saw the potential move as a sign that tankers controlled by the two state-owned giants could obtain safe passage through the strait from Iran, giving them an edge over most shipowners now facing disruption to regional cargo flows, and positioning the duo to capture elevated freight rates.
A unverified WeChat message circulating among investors and industry participants suggested that the state-backed China Shipowners‘ Association notified CSET on the afternoon of March 17 to warm up the engines of its vessels at anchor in the region — a move interpreted as preparation for an imminent crossing.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data shows that Cosco has nine vessels trapped inside the Middle East Gulf, comprising two ultra large containerships, three very large crude carriers, three aframax tankers and one panamax tanker.
These vessels have not yet departed and remain anchored. However, the seven tankers have gathered in central MEG waters approximately 75 nautical miles northwest of Abu Dhabi, and draught data suggest that they are all loaded. The two containerships are positioned closer to the southern coastline.
Meanwhile, the Cosco VLCC Cosflying Lake(IMO: 9698771) is steaming at 12 knots from the Arabian Sea toward the Gulf of Oman, with its AIS destination showing Ras Tanura, the Saudi oil terminal inside the MEG.
On the boxship side, the 20,057 teu COSCO Shipping Aquarius (IMO: 9789623), has been waiting at the entrance to the Gulf of Oman since March 13, with its AIS destination set for Khalifa Port, Abu Dhabi, also inside the MEG.
A CSET official told Lloyd’s List that the company’s vessels are “currently neither entering nor exiting” the strait. The China Shipowners’ Association has also been approached for comment.
China imports about 40% of its crude oil from Middle Eastern producers, making the region critical to its energy security. Still, Chinese owners led by Cosco and China Merchants do not transport all of this oil — their tankers are often chartered out to overseas clients engaged in global trades.
State-linked VLCC broadcasts ‘China vessel and crew’
Lloyd’s List has also tracked a laden Chinese-owned VLCC named He Rong Hai (IMO: 9603192) inside the MEG, which is underway at normal sailing speed and appears to be heading toward the gathering point of the Cosco tankers.
The vessel is broadcasting “CHINA VSL&CREW” via its AIS messaging system.
Vessel databases show that He Rong Hai is managed by Shanghai Yucheng Shipping, which Lloyd’s List understands to be a state-owned enterprise.
Five other tankers managed by the same company were, like He Rong Hai, sold by Cosco or China Merchants in recent years to Shanghai Changshengda Shipping, which is 100% owned by the Shanghai Estuarine and Coastal Science Research Center — an institution under China’s Ministry of Transport, according to Chinese corporate registration records.
It remains unclear whether the gathering of these vessels is in preparation for a strait transit. Another senior CSET executive said the company is still studying the matter.
Passage rights remain uncertain
Since the outbreak of hostilities, the Tehran government and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have repeatedly stated they would only attack vessels linked to countries hostile to Iran, particularly the US and Israel, and would allow passage for ships from friendly nations.
However, Iran has not explicitly stated that Chinese vessels may transit freely.
More than 10 China-linked ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, the vast majority travelling eastbound out of the Middle East Gulf.
But these have all been dry bulkers and general cargoships — with the exception of one sanctioned shadow fleet* VLCC that broadcast its identity as Chinese-owned during its passage.
Ships flagged to India, Pakistan, and Türkiye have also successfully transited the strait in recent days.
The situation, however, remains highly fluid. Iran said on March 18 that the US and Israel struck its South Pars gas field, marking the latest attack on energy infrastructure in the widening conflict. Any further escalation risks prompting Tehran to change its approach to vessel passage.
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