Red Sea traffic remains unchanged by resurgent Houthi attacks
TRANSITS through the Bab el Mandeb are at normal levels after the Houthis’ double attack last week, suggesting most users of the Red Sea’s southern chokepoint are unperturbed by the resumption of violence.
Some 244 passings of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt, those most likely to be internationally trading, were recorded from July 7 to July 13, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel tracking data.
The bulk carrier Magic Seas (IMO: 9736169) was attacked on July 6, and bulker Eternity C (IMO: 9588249) was first targeted on July 7.
There were 232 transits between June 30 to July 6.
The unaltered flow of traffic through the Red Sea in the face of a resurgence in Houthi violence is not unexpected.
The last recorded sinking of a vessel by the Houthis, the 82,357 Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Tutor (IMO: 9942627) in June 2024, similarly failed to have a meaningful impact on traffic volumes.
However, the situation in the Red Sea today is slightly altered to a year ago in that owners and operators had been readying themselves for a tentative return.
A Lloyd’s List investigation shows larger companies and operators that diverted their fleets at the start of the crisis had started resuming Bab el Mandeb transits since January.
The latest Houthi attacks are expected to force them to re-evaluate their voyage risks and will likely lead to a second round of rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope.
The attacks will not, however, impact those that have been sending ships through the Bab el Mandeb throughout the crisis.
“In a nutshell, the operators of ships that have been going through the Red Sea in recent months have no reason to change their mind now because the Houthi threat has not changed,” says Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels.
While there has been no significant return to the Red Sea over the past six months, as recently as the start of July there were reports of companies readying themselves for a future return to the Red Sea.
Arran Kennedy, associate analyst at Control Risks, said the timing of the recent attacks was likely intentional.
“The Houthis are masters at timing their actions to maximise the impact they have and the signal they send,” said Kennedy.
“They likely waited until an increasing number of owners and operators made preparations for, or at least were actively considering, resuming Red Sea transits before sinking these ships in multi-wave attacks and in turn blunting those well-laid plans by several months.”
However, not everyone remains convinced that the latest attacks will extend the timeline of operators re-routing away from the Red Sea.
Following the well-publicised transit of BYD’s newest large car carrier BYD Xi’An (IMO: 9993975) this week, Suez Canal Authority chairman Lieutenant General Osama Rabie seized the opportunity to encourage owners back to the canal.
Rabie said that the BYD transit represented a show of confidence that “the Suez Canal will remain the main artery for global trade from east to west, and that the gradual return of major shipping lines to cross the canal is inevitable”.
In a statement issued on Monday, Rabie forecast a 20% increase in the volume of car carriers transiting the canal in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half of the year.
The SCA, backed by the Egyptian government, has recently been ramping up efforts to lure operators back into the canal via discounted transited fees.
The Suez Canal’s revenue plunged to $880.9m in the fourth quarter of 2024, down sharply from $2.4bn a year earlier, according to Egypt’s central bank.
Conservative estimates suggest that the Egyptian government has lost well over $8bn of revenue from the Suez Canal since the start of Houthi attacks saw over 60% of traffic re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope.
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