Geopolitical Chaos Paves Way for ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips to Capitalize
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) | The Steady Hand with a Green Twist
Chevron produces around 3 million barrels per day, but what really sets it apart is its balanced strategy. Its Gulf of Mexico operations and Tengiz project in Kazakhstan keep the oil flowing. At the same time, its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation last year added Guyana’s high-margin Stabroek block to its arsenal. Moreover, beyond oil, Chevron is investing in renewables like hydrogen and carbon capture, which could help cushion it against long-term energy shifts.
The Israel-Iran ceasefire has calmed oil markets, but Chevron is set to benefit again from higher oil prices if tensions peak, while today’s LNG deal with Energy Transfer (ET) shows the energy giant is doubling down on gas exports, a smart hedge if you can me in case crude takes a hit. It’s worth noting that Chevron is also less exposed to Strait of Hormuz risks than pure Gulf producers, thanks to its global footprint and pipeline access, such as the UAE’s Fujairah terminal.
Is CVX Stock a Good Buy?
On Wall Street, Chevron stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buy, six Hold, and two Sell ratings. CVX’s average stock price target of $159.50 implies almost 11% upside potential over the next twelve months.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) | The Nimble Shale King
ConocoPhillips is the scrappy underdog of the trio, with a heavy focus on U.S. shale and unconventional plays. Its $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil last year strengthened its positions in the Permian and Eagle Ford, enhancing its low-cost production capacity. Boasting about 2.3 million barrels per day, COP is leaner than Exxon or Chevron but quick to ramp up output when prices climb. That makes it an ideal option for those who want to bet on short-term oil price spikes.
The Israel-Iran conflict hasn’t, of course, directly impacted Conoco’s U.S.-centric operations; however, a Strait closure could still send global prices soaring, and Conoco will be ready to capitalize on the opportunity if tensions resume.
Further, its Alaskan Willow project, slated to add 180,000 barrels per day by 2029, demonstrates that management is committed to long-term oil production (long oil). In my view, COP’s high-quality assets make it a prime pick if Middle East volatility pushes Brent above $80 again.
Is ConocoPhillips a Good Stock to Buy?
ConocoPhillips is currently covered by 18 Wall Street analysts, most of whom hold a bullish outlook. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating with 16 analysts assigning a Buy, and only two a Hold rating over the past three months. COP’s average price target of $113.50 suggests approximately 26% upside potential over the next twelve months.
Positioning for the Next Spark
The Israel-Iran ceasefire may have taken some heat out of oil prices, but expecting long-term stability feels premature. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips each bring something unique to lean on for those who want to remain long oil: Exxon’s global muscle, Chevron’s enduring diversification, and Conoco’s shale-fueled agility.
With the Strait of Hormuz still a flashpoint and both sides itching to break the truce, these oilers are well-placed to capitalize on any price surges. Substantial dividends and smart plays (from recent acquisitions to bets on alternatives) make them dependable portfolio anchors. And if tensions flare up again in the Middle East, these three could deliver standout gains.
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