Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) on Value Investors Club by tharp05. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SBUX. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)'s share was trading at $93.64 as of 8th July. SBUX’s trailing and forward P/E were 34.05 and 31.75 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Starbucks appears to be entering a critical inflection point with the appointment of Brian Niccol as CEO, echoing parallels to the company’s 2008 turnaround under Howard Schultz. Niccol, known for reviving Chipotle and Taco Bell, is seen as the right leader to fix Starbucks’ operational missteps while steering it toward long-term growth.
The company continues to generate strong returns, but recent years have seen performance slip, prompting the board to act decisively. Like Schultz in 2008, Niccol has initiated a series of changes aimed at restoring customer experience and brand strength, including new marketing campaigns, refining in-store operations, and a more disciplined focus on service.
One of his most critical initiatives targets mobile ordering, which now makes up ~30% of U.S. sales but has hurt service quality and store experience. To address this, Starbucks hired Meredith Sandland—formerly of Taco Bell and founder of Empower Delivery—to optimize order sequencing using machine learning. This move reflects Niccol’s targeted approach to building capable teams.
While initial plans may lack granular detail, there’s a clear strategy to reset execution and customer focus. Niccol is also highly incentivized, walking away from $75M in unvested CMG options and receiving a pay package tied closely to shareholder returns and operational metrics.
Risks remain—economic sensitivity, limits to pricing power, and the company’s checkered record with non-founder CEOs—but the upside is significant.
If Starbucks successfully navigates this turnaround, it could see margin expansion, multiple rerating, and sustained revenue growth driven by MOP optimization and renewed brand affinity.Bottom of Form
Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) by Business Model Mastery in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s behavioral flywheel, loyalty ecosystem, and capital-light margin drivers across global expansion. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 15% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out partially, as the business fundamentals remained strong. tharp05 shares a similar view but emphasizes the leadership transition to Brian Niccol as a key catalyst for operational and brand revitalization.
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