Instant view: US consumer prices tick up as anticipated in June
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer prices picked up in June, likely marking the start of a long-anticipated tariff-induced increase in inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. That was the largest gain since January. In the 12 months through June, the CPI advanced 2.7% after rising 2.4% in May.
Economists polled Reuters had forecast the CPI would climb 0.3% and increase 2.6% on a year-over-year basis.
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: U.S. stock futures extended gains following the CPI data.
BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields pared declines, 10-year yield flat.
FOREX: U.S. dollar gains on the yen
COMMENTS:
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN:
"Tariffs are in the data, but it’s not as devastating as many feared. Appliances and household equipment and furnishings prices jumped nearly 2%, but those only make up around 1% of the consumer price index. Services make up the bulk of the consumption basket and there is scant sign of accelerating inflation there. Rent rose 0.2%, lodging away from home fell 2.9%. It’s not that tariffs don’t matter, it’s just that they don’t matter to inflation as much or as mechanically as many feared."
PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK
“It's basically good news because core, on a monthly basis, up 0.2% is in line. The yearly number is a little bit higher than expected. What we’re seeing in the headline numbers is that some of the tariff inflation is probably creeping in.”
“So it's a little bit hotter than expected, but it’s not all bad news. there is a slight bit evidence of tariff inflation kicking in.”
“This data bails out the Fed and it puts them on hold in July. They will have to look at the July and August numbers to make a decision in in September.”
CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NORTHLIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLOTTE:
"Traders were keeping a close eye on this morning’s CPI report and the Fed was probably looking even more closely at it as the internal debate continues into whether or not they should be cutting interest rates right now."
"Fortunately, the report this morning was mostly in line with expectations and the core (ex-food and energy) numbers told a story of inflation that was in check (e.g. month-over-month lower than expected and year-over-year inline with +2.9% consensus)."
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