Bitcoin Price Forecast: How Low Will Geopolitical Turmoil Push BTC?
Bitcoin (BTC) has tumbled below $104,000 as renewed conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a fresh wave of global risk aversion, sending shockwaves through cryptocurrency markets.
With geopolitical instability intensifying, analysts are now laser-focused on Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory—and the signals suggest more turbulence ahead.
Bitcoin’s Drop: A Flight to Safety, But Not to Crypto
In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in response to reported drone attacks. As tensions escalated, Bitcoin dropped over 5% in a matter of hours, leading a broader selloff across digital assets.
- Current BTC Price: $108,450 (as of 5 p.m. ET Friday)
- 24-Hour Decline: -5.6%
- Market Cap Loss: Nearly $60 billion wiped from the global crypto market
Traditionally seen as a “digital gold” hedge, Bitcoin’s decline during crisis events calls into question its safe-haven status—at least in the short term.
“Bitcoin is still behaving more like a high-risk tech stock than a geopolitical hedge,” said Lucas McCarthy, strategist at Chainform Capital. “Investors are moving to the dollar and Treasuries, not digital assets.”
Key Levels to Watch in the Coming Days
Short-term technical indicators suggest Bitcoin may face continued downward pressure unless sentiment rapidly improves. Analysts are eyeing the following support and resistance levels:
- Immediate Support: $106,500 – a recent consolidation zone
- Next Support: $103,000 – a level tested during May’s correction
- Overhead Resistance: $111,000 – the ceiling that BTC failed to reclaim this week
A break below $106,500 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially dragging BTC into the low $100Ks.
What Could Stabilize BTC?
Several key developments could help calm Bitcoin’s volatility and restore bullish momentum:
- Ceasefire or diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East
- Positive macroeconomic signals, such as weaker inflation data or Fed dovishness
- Increased ETF inflows, which have waned amid global instability
Short-term traders are also monitoring stablecoin outflows from exchanges, an early indicator of institutional positioning. As of Friday, Tether (USDT) redemptions increased 4%, hinting at broader market caution.
Short-Term Outlook: Volatile, With Downside Risk
In the immediate term, Bitcoin appears vulnerable to further declines as global uncertainty remains high. Unless risk appetite returns quickly, BTC may retest lower support levels before mounting a new rally.
However, some traders view this pullback as a strategic accumulation window.
“This isn’t a collapse—this is crypto reacting to global fear,” said Maria Gonzales, portfolio analyst at CryptoQuant. “Smart money might be waiting for $103K to reload.”
Key Takeaways
- BTC dropped below $109K after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran sparked a global risk-off move.
- Short-term support lies near $106.5K, with a potential retest of $103K if tensions escalate.
- Safe-haven demand has shifted toward the dollar and gold, not Bitcoin.
- Traders should expect high volatility until geopolitical uncertainty eases.
BITCOIN GUIDES & RESOURCES:
- Latest Bitcoin Updates and Headlines
- How Does Bitcoin Work?
- How to Buy, Trade, and Hold Bitcoin
- Track Bitcoin Volatility and Maximize Your BTC Investment
- Step-by-Step Guide: How to Buy Bitcoin in 2025
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