The Bitcoin Power Shift No One's Talking About
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could be entering a new chapterone that looks a lot less like a high-octane trade and more like a steady institutional asset. Over the past year, longtime holdersminers, offshore funds, and early anonymous whaleshave quietly sold over 500,000 coins, according to 10x Research. Meanwhile, institutions like ETFs, corporates, and asset managers have absorbed nearly 900,000 coins. This silent handover is reshaping the $2.1 trillion market's ownership base, with Bitcoin stuck near $110,000 as volatility fades and institutional allocation grows.
Today, ETFs and treasury allocators now control about 25% of all circulating Bitcoin. Back in 2020, just 2% of wallets held 95% of the supply. That concentration is breaking down fast. Some of the older whales aren't just sellingthey're converting BTC into equity through private transactions tied to the public markets. The result? A less explosive asset, but potentially more resilient. Metrics like Deribit's volatility index have dropped to multi-year lows, and analysts are tempering expectations to 10%20% annual returnsdown sharply from the parabolic runs of past cycles. Bitcoin is probably more like boring dividend stock over time, said Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, suggesting it could become a staple for longer-term portfolios.
Still, this transformation comes with risks. Hilary Allen, a long-time crypto critic, notes this institutional rush may be providing the exit liquidity whales have waited years forleaving retail and retirement investors more exposed if inflows slow. Past outflows of just 2% and 9% in 2018 and 2022 triggered 74% and 64% drawdowns, respectively. That said, not everyone sees a repeat. MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) CEO Fred Thiel believes we're in a very different market environment nowone where this slow grind toward institutional maturity could play out over years, not months. Markus Thielen at 10x agrees: The nature of Bitcoin really changes.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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