Tuur Demeester Forecasts $500K Bitcoin in Mid-Cycle Rally

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Bitcoin’s current bull cycle may be far from its climax, according to a new report by Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research.

The analysts argue the market is in a phase of “mid-cycle strength,” with price targets extending to $500,000 and beyond.

Key research findings

The Adamant Research report, led by Demeester, suggests Bitcoin could appreciate 4–10x from current levels.

Several metrics back this outlook, including on-chain indicators like HODLer Net Position Change and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which currently signals that 50–70% of the supply remains in profit—indicative of mid-cycle optimism rather than a market top.

Demeester notes:

“We think this is the mid-cycle in what could become one of the most significant bull runs in bitcoin’s history. From its current range, we believe there is still a path toward a 4-10x value appreciation, which would imply bitcoin price targets north of $500,000.”

Limited headwinds, strong institutional support

Potential risks such as large exchange hacks or bankruptcy coin distributions are seen as unlikely to derail the bull market.

Recent events like the Mt. Gox distribution and a July 2025 liquidation of 80,000 BTC only moved the price by 4%.

Meanwhile, the report highlights that around 10% of the total supply is held by Coinbase, raising some centralization concerns, but notes that ETF issuers are diversifying custody options.

Bitcoin favored over altcoins

Demeester and his team recommend an exclusive focus on Bitcoin, dismissing alternative assets as lacking the network effect, security, and monetary purity of BTC.

They highlight the surge in institutional adoption, rising fiscal deficits, and the growing trend of governments, such as the U.S., integrating Bitcoin into policy—citing the National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and rapid ETF uptake, now holding about 1.4 million BTC.

Mid-cycle positioning and investor guidance

The report suggests investors consider a 5% Bitcoin allocation as systemic risk insurance, with higher allocations denoting higher conviction.

For custody, collaborative multi-signature setups are advised for new adopters to balance safety and sovereignty.

Demeester concludes that, with strong macro tailwinds and institutional demand, Bitcoin’s “mid-cycle” position sets the stage for potentially historic gains over the next several years.