“We estimate the dry bulk supply/demand balance to weaken in both 2025 and 2026, compared to 2024. Demand growth is expected to slow, impacted by a weaker economic outlook for China and
“We estimate the dry bulk supply/demand balance to weaken in both 2025 and 2026, compared to 2024. Demand growth is expected to slow, impacted by a weaker economic outlook for China and the world and a shift in US trade policy,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
The rise in tariffs and the start of trade negotiations by the US have introduced additional uncertainty and are directly impacting 4% of global dry bulk tonne mile demand. In China, this is expected to slow economic growth starting in the second half of 2025, while front-loading ahead of the start of tariffs led to comparatively stronger growth in the first half. This is adding to previous pressures from a struggling property market and deflation.
Ship demand is forecast to only grow up to 1% in 2025 and 1-2% in 2026. Demand is expected to be driven by an increase in average sailing distances, supported by stronger iron ore and bauxite shipments out of the South Atlantic and into Asia. Cargo demand growth appears timid, despite stronger minor bulk shipments, since coal and iron ore shipments are forecast to fall until the end of 2026.
Ship supply is estimated to grow
Content Original Link:
" target="_blank">
