Shipping sanctions in the balance as EU mulls price cap and Trump touts Russia bill
THE EU is slowly edging closer to a compromise agreement on its latest package of Russian sanctions that may — or may not — see a lowered, or potentially floating, oil price cap emerge.
But the internal and external opposition that could yet derail those EU plans is already being overshadowed by the prospect of severe new US sanctions on Russia, with a decision from Donald Trump expected next week.
President Trump teased a “major statement” on Russia on Monday during an interview with NBC News. He also said he expects the Senate to pass a tougher Russia sanctions bill sponsored by a close ally, Senator Lindsey Graham.
Under the proposed draft, US trading partners, including China and India, would be hit with 500% tariffs on their products if they make any purchases of Russian oil — effectively supercharging US sanctions on Russia.
The bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 has been gaining momentum in the Senate, but has been waiting for Trump’s backing before moving to a vote.
Given his recent overt criticism of Vladimir Putin and indications from Senator Graham on Thursday that the bill now has Trump’s support, the promise of a “major statement” on Russia coming on Monday has increased expectations that the bill will now move ahead.
A resurgent US crackdown on Russian oil trades would dramatically alter the current market dynamics for tankers and could help overcome the current opposition to EU sanctions plans, which have been stalling.
While the EU unveiled plans last month to lower the G7-led price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45, the proposals were quietly shelved after it ran into both internal and US opposition.
Greece, Cyprus and Malta are understood to have voiced reluctance to support a lowering of the price cap, while Slovakia continues to block the measure as it tries to quash separate proposals to end Russian gas imports by 2027.
Internal opposition, however, could likely be overcome if the US were to agree to the plan and reinstate its support for a cohesive G7-led approach against Russia.
In the meantime, the European Commission has been considering compromise options in a bid to push forward with their stalled 18th package of sanctions measures.
According to a Reuters report on Friday, which cited anonymous EU diplomats, that includes a proposal for a floating Russian oil price cap.
While the floating price cap may be the subject of internal EU discussions, Lloyd’s List understands that the idea is yet to be discussed with UK and US counterparts — indicating that the proposal is either at an early stage of development, or would be an EU-only development.
The EU could, theoretically, move to lower the cap unilaterally — or introduce the floating price cap as a separate plan. However, several EU member states would likely block any decision that did not come with a US agreement.
The prospect of two different price caps would complicate already lax enforcement and dilute the limited impact of the existing regime.
However, several of the Baltic EU coastal states currently dealing with shadow fleet* ships routinely passing their coastlines, are increasingly pressuring Brussels to move ahead with more significant sanctions measures.
Estonia is threatening to veto the next sanctions package against Russia unless it includes a lower price cap on Russian oil, national broadcaster ERR reported earlier this week.
* Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as being part of the Shadow Fleet if it engages in one or more deceptive shipping practices indicating that it is involved in the facilitation of sanctioned oil cargoes from Iran, Russia or Venezuela. Or it is sanctioned for participation in sanctioned oil trades or is sanctioned for links to a company that is sanctioned for facilitating the export of sanctioned oil.
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