GMS: Tonnage shortage hardens as Hormuz risk returns

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the oil market will not normalise until 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond mid-June, while the IEA confirmed that global oil inventories fell at a record 4 million barrels per day through March and April. Even under a more constructive diplomatic scenario, the market remains heavily undersupplied through October, with Saudi output at its lowest level since 1990.

Fresh U.S. sanctions on entities involved in Iranian oil sales to China added another layer of friction as President Trump and President Xi met in Beijing this week, with Hormuz, Iranian oil flows, Taiwan, trade, and energy security among the issues on the agenda. The diplomatic track has not collapsed, but it has stopped advancing.

Freight has continued the rally that defined Week 19. The Baltic Dry Index broke through 3,000 on May 7 before consolidating, while the Baltic Capesize Index reached 5,139 and daily Capesize earnings moved above USD 43,000. Panamax earnings also firmed, with the P5TC advancing from USD 18,490 to USD 20,099. The dry bulk earnings premium that keeps older bulkers trading rather than beached is now at its strongest level of 2026. For owners contemplating a recycling decision before the monsoon window closes, the signal remains unambiguous: keep trading.

Currency divergence has widened rather than narrowed. The Indian Rupee has breached 96 to touch a fresh all-time low, the Pakistani Rupee has firmed counterintuitively, the Turkish Lira remains pinned near record weakness, and the Bangladeshi Taka continues to hold its established band. The Dollar Index remains near 100, leaving buyers across the recycling markets with different pressures but the same basic constraint: price confidence remains difficult while supply remains absent. Detailed country reads follow on pages 2 through 5.

Approximately two weeks now separate the sub-continent from the practical closure of the monsoon window. The six-week arc from Week 15 through Week 20 has produced a market in which oil, freight, currencies, and inflation are all pointing to the same outcome: tonnage is not arriving in time. The Q1 overhang has not merely rolled into a Q2 backlog. The Q2 backlog has hardened. Bangladesh and India’s April CPI prints, Iran’s response to the MoU, and Aramco’s mid-June Hormuz threshold all converge across the next 14 days. The window closes regardless.

For Week 20 of 2026, GMS Market Rankings / Vessel indications are as below: