Germany Moves Toward Energy Independence but Falls Short of Climate Target

For the first time, DNV has applied its independent Energy Transition Outlook model— incorporating the latest technology trends and policy developments— to Germany.

The inaugural German Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report finds that Germany is on track to electrify nearly half of its electricity demand by midcentury. Yet, it will fall short of its 2045 climate neutrality target.

One of the main advantages for Germany is that its energy mix by supply will shift dramatically. Imports comprise 70% of Germany’s primary energy and will fall to 27% by 2050, making Germany much less energy import-dependent. Imported coal and oil will decline by 99% and 79%, respectively.

Moreover, natural gas and hydrogen will be equal by mid-century, with one-third of the hydrogen produced domestically.

While Germany is making significant progress in reshaping its energy landscape, emissions are forecast to drop by 89% by 2045 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, leaving policymakers with the challenge of plugging the remaining gap.

The study found that by 2050, 46% of Germany’s energy demand will be electrified - more than double today’s 19%. The declining cost of new technologies, such as batteries and heat pumps, and policy drivers, such as carbon price, drive