EIA Revises Downward Projections for US Crude Oil Production in 2025
The number of drilling rigs in the U.S. has been on a downward trend, reaching levels not seen in nearly four years. (Justin Hamel/Bloomberg)
A recent publication by the energy Details Management reveals that domestic crude oil production growth is slowing more than anticipated this year due to fluctuating oil prices affecting drilling activities.
This year, U.S. crude output is projected to increase by only 160,000 barrels per day, totaling 13.37 million barrels daily—this marks a reduction of about 50,000 barrels from earlier forecasts made in June.
The decline in drilling rigs continues even as oil prices have stabilized after experiencing notable drops due to concerns over global demand.
The EIA also updated previous monthly figures indicating that producers reduced their inventories of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) last month. The count fell by seven to reach just 5,291—this is the lowest figure recorded as tracking began in early 2013.
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The decrease in ducs can hint at future supply levels; a lower count suggests that producers may not be able to ramp up output quickly even if there’s a spike in oil prices.
The EIA anticipates considerable global inventory builds will exert ongoing downward pressure on oil prices over time; they predict Brent crude will average around $58 per barrel come 2026 while it currently hovers near $70 per barrel.
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