Cocoa supply is expected to improve in 2025 due to favorable weather conditions in West Africa

The continuously challenging weather in West Africa, where most of the world’s cocoa supply comes from, led to the highest prices of cocoa products in history. As farmers struggled to maintain cost-effective production due to heavy rains, the world experienced a chocolate crisis. 

In addition to fluctuating weather patterns, aging cocoa trees, and diseases, it has been more challenging to supply cocoa than before, especially from the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Therefore, the global chocolate production line has declined considerably in the past years. According to Statista, the Ivory Coast produced 2,24 million metric tons of cocoa beans in 2020 but only supplied 1,80 million metric tons in 2024. 

However, things might take a turn in 2025 as it seems weather conditions are improving, so the market might return to its previous state.

Image source: https://unsplash.com/photos/open-cacao-fruit-lot-opno2uWx0iE 

Cocoa supply to surpass demand 

The International Cocoa Organization revealed that the 2024-2025 season might be the first in three years of shortages, bringing the industry back to surplus. Production is expected to rise by 7.8%, especially since historically, higher prices might’ve helped farmers access better resources for farming cocoa. Hence, cocoa prices should ease in the near future as supplies enter the market. 

At the same time, the crisis spread awareness of the industry’s challenges, driving ethical cocoa initiatives. Sustainable cocoa wholesale brands focus on providing premium chocolate without compromising farmers’ lives, therefore ensuring adequate pay and working environments. With transparent and traceable cocoa supply chains, change can happen in small but significant steps. 

The risk of cocoa diseases still lingers 

While we should expect better weather conditions, farmers have to mitigate the risk of diseases, especially the Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV). The virus affects the cacao yield in the first year and eliminates it within a few years, with signs of leaf discoloration and stem swelling. 

Mealybug vectors transmit the virus between trees, and pesticides are not very efficient in eliminating them, especially since a female can lay up to 600 eggs that hatch in about a week. Biological control is ideal through natural enemies such as lady beetles, spiders, and green and brown lacewings. Insecticides might be efficient if applied to younger mealybug nymphs. 

Ghana experienced such an outbreak in 2024 when farmers could not contain it, affecting 31% of the cocoa-growing land. Still, in time, the government made efforts to treat farms and replant trees nationwide, contributing to a replenishing industry. 

Manufacturers expect a significant dip in earnings per share 

While choosing a reliable cocoa supplier is key to every business’s contribution to a better future, the current state of the market might discourage brands. Rising cocoa prices will continue to affect manufacturers this year, even if supply rates increase, causing considerable drops in earnings. 

Companies are using new pack sizes, modified formulas with alternative ingredients, and less cocoa content to navigate the increasing prices. However, smaller manufacturers might have had to compromise on product quality or size to be able to afford to continue operating. These challenges made brands realize how dependent they were on single providers or locations so they could drive change by diversifying cocoa suppliers. 

Is altrnative cocoa the solution to supply scarcity? 

As cocoa continues to be challenged by uncontrollable factors like the weather, many companies are discovering substitutes, such as Carob powder. Made from dried and roasted carob tree pods, the powder is sweet but has a unique taste. It’s naturally low-fat, high in fiber, and caffeine-free. 

Carob trees are native to the Mediterranean and the Middle East, so this could provide a new market opening for the sweets sector. However, the product failed to become popular, as its taste is completely different from that of cocoa. It could completely change the taste of sweet products or beverages. 

Carob became a widespread alternative to cocoa in the 1970s in the US, especially during the natural food movement. Still, it never became a reliable option as it tastes nothing like the real deal. Therefore, we might never be able to replace true chocolate with alternatives. 

So, what’s to be done for a change of scenery? 

The cocoa industry has many overlooked issues that have eventually contributed to this moment in history. The social and economic difficulties farmers go through to supply the world with cocoa are well-known at this point, and if we were to make cocoa ethical, they would deserve better pay and less risky work environments. 

On the other hand, the industry has triggered considerable deforestation in West Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. To plant cocoa trees, the wildlife habitat is usually cleared out to create new land for production. In Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the available forest land is slowly disappearing, becoming hot spots for monoculture cocoa cultivation. 

However, this agricultural technique not only affects the environment but is also highly inefficient. It degrades the soil and relies heavily on pesticides for crops to survive, polluting nearby water bodies and threatening wildlife. 

The solution: shade-grown agroforestry 

Monocultures are already widespread across countries, but they can be improved through shade-grown techniques, in which farmers plant cocoa trees between diverse crops to support biodiversity and flora. 

Farmers can also improve food security and approach diversification as the soil can benefit from more moisture and carbon sequestration. This would also tackle the deforestation issue since more cultures will grow around cocoa trees to create new biodiversity. 

This system will eventually replace all monoculture cocoa spaces. This is especially important for supporting resilience to climate change, as weather conditions become more aggressive, meaning rains and drought can intensify. Therefore, we need to create stronger ecosystems for cocoa and overall forestry. 

A positive outlook for the cocoa industry in 2025 

After several challenging years of reduced supply and increasing prices, the cocoa industry might regain its strength. Experts forecast 2025 to lower prices slightly as the weather in West Africa improves, allowing farmers to harvest a small supply of cocoa beans. Therefore, the shortage will ease. 

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