Fear and speculation mount after another tanker is hit by unexplained blast

These previous four tankers had also all recently stooped at Malta’s outer port limits prior to their explosions. In the case of Vilamoura, the tanker was tracked distancing from Malta’s OPL on June 20.

In the absence of any hard evidence or investigation outcomes, that common connection has been sufficient for several private security firm and industry bodies to privately discuss the “probability” that the explosions were linked to the Ukraine war.

In March, security firm Ambrey issued a threat assessment concluding that recent spate of attacks targeting ships that previously called at Russian oil export hubs was the work of unnamed “state actors”. While that report did not finger Ukraine, the conversations in private among private and government security analysts have all namechecked Ukrainian actors as being a likely and potential source of the explosions.

Lloyd’s List even understands that political back channels were used by the US to quietly warn the Ukrainian administration earlier this year that if it were somehow complicit in these explosions then it should cease with immediate effect.

The explosion on Vilamoura, however, suggests that whoever is behind the blasts has not heeded any warnings.

It also raises the possibility the recent explosions are less connected that initially assumed.

Much of the connected pattern of explosions had initially focused on the use of magnetic limpet mines being placed outside the hull, but an initial analysis of the photos from inside Vilamoura suggest that the explosion was inward.

That, and the fact the Vilamoura photos suggest that shrapnel penetrated three decks — the outer hull and two more — all point to the device not being a limpet mine.

There is also the Libya link to consider and a potential alternative theory behind at least two of the explosions.

In the case of the Liberia-flagged Grace Ferrum, which experienced two explosions under the bottom hull in the engine room area while waiting to discharge at Tripoli anchorage, Libya, on February 2, it was initially assumed that the link was with Russia. But the similarities to the Vilamoura case on Friday raise the possibility that the blasts were a spillover of Libyan related disruption and political disagreements over oil exports and offshore operations.

In the case of the of the Maltese-flagged tanker Seajewel, which was hit off Savona, the investigations focused on the origin of the crude oil it was transporting.

Preliminary findings by bomb experts and specialised divers indicated that Seajewel was luckier than other tankers in that first explosion dislodged the second device, limiting structural damage to the vessel.

Investigators ordered specific chemical analyses to determine whether the crude oil on board originated from Algeria, as declared by the vessel’s captain. The results of the analyses, conducted by a specialised laboratory confirmed that the oil on board Seajewel was of North African origin, ruling out the possibility of Russian crude. However, the possibility of covert trafficking of Russian or even Ukrainian oil has not been entirely excluded, as the chemical composition analysis can only determine the general geographical area of extraction, not the specific country. The investigation continues.

Meanwhile, in the absence of any conclusive analysis or firm evidence being presented by security agencies internationally, shipowners have been left second guessing what to base their risk assessments on.

Vilamoura was being towed to the south of Greece on Monday with an estimate time of arrival somewhere between July 1-2.

“The crew remain healthy and in good spirits,” said TMS in a statement.