A new study, led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) in collaboration with marine scientists from across Europe, reveals the extent to which climate change is set to significantly alter the distribution and
A new study, led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) in collaboration with marine scientists from across Europe, reveals the extent to which climate change is set to significantly alter the distribution and abundance of commercially important fish species across European seas over the coming decades.
The paper "Multiple Models of European Marine Fish Stocks: Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Climate," published in Global Change Biology, represents the first comprehensive, multi-model assessment of how 18 key fish stocks will respond to warming waters across seven European regional seas from the Mediterranean to the Arctic by 2100.
“Our analysis shows that the overall productivity and biomass of these crucial species are projected to decline within European waters by at least 15% by 2050 under moderate emissions scenarios, and by over 40% by 2100 under high emissions scenarios,” explains lead author PML’s Dr. Sévrine F. Sailley. “However, these changes won’t be uniform—we’re seeing a complex patchwork of ‘winners and losers’ depending on the species and region.”
The international research team employed eleven bio-ecological models to project how fish stocks will respond to changes in sea surface temperature, primary productivity, and other environmental factors under different climate scenarios.
Rather than focusing on total
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