Maersk Revises Global Container Market Forecast Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

By Christian Wienberg
May 8,2025 (Bloomberg) – A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the prominent Danish shipping company, has revised its expectations for the global transport sector due to the ongoing trade tensions initiated by donald Trump. The new forecast for market trends in 2025 suggests a potential decline of 1% or an increase of up to 4%, as stated in a recent announcement that highlighted “growing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.” This is a meaningful shift from the earlier prediction of around 4% growth made just a few months ago.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, CEO Vincent Clerc pointed out that while the trade conflict primarily affects US-China relations, other regions are still operating normally. However, he acknowledged that tariffs have already impacted container shipping volumes substantially; trade between China and the US has plummeted by about 30% to 40%. Fortunately for Maersk, their main route connects Asia with Europe, making them less vulnerable compared to other shipping companies.

Maersk commands roughly 14% of the global container fleet and manages operations at around 60 ports worldwide. The firm is feeling the effects of Trump’s protectionist policies which threaten decades of free trade advancements. On a brighter note, Maersk anticipates increased transport activity in Europe as countries like Germany ramp up investments—particularly in defence sectors.

The company expressed concerns about unpredictable global container demand moving forward due to shifting trade policies and rising recession fears in America. However, they believe there’s potential for growth this quarter if shippers take advantage of a temporary halt on reciprocal tariffs by increasing shipments and stockpiling goods.

Interestingly enough, profits within container lines have seen an uptick thanks to ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea region—a situation that’s persisted for nearly one-and-a-half years now—as vessels reroute southward around Africa alleviating some overcapacity issues within the industry.

Looking ahead into late this year,Maersk foresees two possible outcomes: either demand may shrink further or there could be a resurgence if tariffs are lifted. They plan to align their growth with market trends accordingly.

For now, Maersk maintains its projection for underlying earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) between $6 billion and $9 billion for 2025. In Q1 alone this year saw earnings rise beyond analyst expectations driven by elevated freight rates alongside effective cost management strategies coupled with increased shipment volumes.

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