Navigating Calm Waters: How Tariff Agreements Shape the Upcoming Container Shipping Season

The peak season for shipping containers across the pacific might kick off sooner than expected this year,thanks to a notable drop in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Recently, the U.S. announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, slashing them from 145% down to 30%. In response, China has lowered its retaliatory tariffs on American products from 125% to just 10%.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, points out that with an average shipping time of about three weeks for Transpacific routes, many shippers are likely to seize this chance and ramp up cargo shipments during this window. This surge could push freight rates higher as demand spikes.

“Typically, Q3 is when we see peak activity in ocean container shipping,” Sand explains. “However,if there’s a rush of imports from china into the U.S., we might see that peak arrive earlier in 2025.”

But it’s not all smooth sailing; capacity issues are looming large. Carriers have shifted their vessels to other lucrative routes—like those connecting Asia with Europe—due to falling volumes between China and the U.S.,which surged after tariff hikes back in april 2025. Getting these ships back could led to increased costs for shippers in the short term.

Recent figures from Xeneta show that capacity has tightened considerably; as late April, offered capacity from Asia to North America has plummeted by 17%, now sitting at around 265,000 TEU as of mid-May. Additionally, blanked sailings have shot up by an astounding 86%, totaling nearly 89,100 TEU during this timeframe.

Despite these changes bringing some relief through lower tariffs on Chinese goods, Sand warns that ongoing tariffs may still impact lower-margin items and potentially dampen demand growth further down the line.Plus, some companies may take time getting their operations back up and running after previously scaling back due to earlier tariff pressures.

Spot rates have seen dramatic drops since January; prices for shipments heading toward both coasts of the U.S. fell by nearly half before experiencing a slight rebound in early April. “Looking ahead,” Sand notes optimistically but cautiously about future trends: “It seems likely freight rates will continue their downward trajectory observed earlier this year before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement.”

Experts urge caution despite these positive developments regarding tariff reductions; geopolitical tensions remain high and businesses are increasingly looking at diversifying their supply chains as a strategy against potential future disruptions.

Stay updated with daily insights into maritime trends! Sign up for our newsletter—trusted by over 109k members!