U.S. Grain Shipments Surge Amidst Chinese Trade Barriers

According to a recent analysis by BIMCO, U.S. grain exports via sea saw a notable 9% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, despite facing hurdles from tariffs imposed by China.Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, pointed out that this growth was largely fueled by a surge in maize exports. However, it’s significant to note that U.S. shipments to China took a significant hit—plummeting 57% year-over-year due to retaliatory tariffs introduced in March as a response to increased duties on Chinese goods announced by the Trump administration.

The immediate fallout from these tariffs was stark; shipments of U.S. grain destined for China dropped dramatically from making up 26% of total exports in early 2024 down to just 10% in 2025.In light of this setback, American exporters quickly sought new markets across Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean region. Yet this strategic pivot wasn’t enough to fully counterbalance losses for certain commodities that heavily relied on Chinese demand—soya bean exports fell by 10%,while sorghum saw an alarming decline of nearly 89%.

This shift in trade routes has produced mixed outcomes for the dry bulk shipping industry. while overall export volumes rose, there was still a noticeable drop of about 7% year-over-year in tonne mile demand due primarily to shorter shipping distances—a trend highlighted by BIMCO’s findings. Gouveia elaborated that even though volume increases were encouraging for dry bulk shipping during early 2025, average sailing distances decreased significantly—by around 14%. The reopening of Panama Canal routes after drought-related restrictions last year further contributed to these reduced distances.

BIMCO’s report also revealed interesting insights into vessel size distribution handling U.S. grain cargoes: panamax ships accounted for about 46%, supramax vessels made up roughly 32%, and handysize ships represented around 22%.While both panamax and handysize segments experienced an uptick in tonne mile demand, supramax vessels faced stiff competition from their panamax counterparts especially within key markets like Japan and China.

Looking ahead towards future trends post-harvest season in the U.S., BIMCO anticipates an increase in grain shipments as production ramps up again; USDA forecasts suggest maize production could rise by about six percent although wheat and soya bean outputs may see slight declines instead.

Gouveia noted optimism regarding seasonal boosts following harvests but cautioned that securing alternative markets for soya beans and sorghum might pose ongoing challenges—especially since Brazil is expected to continue capturing China’s favor with its growing production capabilities.

Stay updated with daily maritime insights! Sign up now and join our community of over109k members who trust us for timely information!