China’s 12 million tonnes U.S. soybean pledge could boost bulker demand

Source: BIMCO

China’s agreement to resume purchases of American soybeans is not only good news for farmers and the U.S. inland waterways industry. BIMCO expects the agreement to be positive for the dry bulk market.

“Following U.S.-China trade negotiations, China has committed to resume imports of U.S, soybeans,” says Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO. Noting that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans during the rest of 2025 and 25 million tonnes per year during the next three years, similar to 2024 volumes, Gouveia says that “if these commitments are met, U.S. soybean shipments are expected to surge in the short term before stabilizing in the medium term,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

The trade agreement provides relief for U.S. soybean shipments which have fallen 27% y/y so far this year. Although the U.S. managed to boost shipments to destinations other than China, it has not been enough to mitigate a 65% y/y drop in shipments to China. Chinese imports, however, have still increased 5% y/y during the period, supported by a 21% y/y increase in shipments from South America.

“Over the coming months, we expect to see inventory building in China, as purchasing of U.S. cargoes increases,” says Gouveia. “Meanwhile, South America’s upcoming harvest is expected to drive down prices, further encouraging purchasing. The panamax segment is expected to be the main beneficiary of this increase as it transports 93% of soybean cargoes to China.”

Soya bean prices have already shifted, impacted by the outcome of the trade negotiations. US prices hit a 15-month high while Brazilian prices dropped, prompting China to increase purchasing.
Overall, the return of U.S. soybean shipments to China could lead to lower volumes from South America compared to 2025.

Traditionally, this shift would have reduced tonne-mile demand due to shorter sailing distances. However, since 2022, U.S. shipments have increasingly bypassed the Panama Canal, opting instead for the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope, making their distances comparable to those from South America.

“In the medium term, China’s soybean demand is expected to continue growing, supported by rising meat production, especially poultry. However, shipments of U.S. soya beans might not rise beyond agreed volumes, as Chinese buyers often favor South American cargoes due to lower prices. Risks to the demand outlook include Chinese government efforts to reduce soya bean imports and to cut overcapacity in pork production,” says Gouveia