The Daily View: Not just one tanker

PROMISING “stronger action” to break the shadow fleet’s “chokehold” is one thing.

Directly seizing shadow fleet vessels within striking distance of Russian jets is another thing entirely.

The latest round of robust rhetoric from the UK and EU all points towards a more significant set of actions against the ever-increasing fleet of stateless tankers passing their coastline.

That Germany forced the notorious Tavian(IMO: 1095337) to perform a U-turn earlier this week is significant, but only if others follow suit and turn the threats into enforcement.

We are not there yet, but the shadow fleet is under pressure and that comes with consequences for shipping, and not just those in the shadowy end of trades.

Russia’s ability to sustain its crude exports increasingly hinges on the tonnage willing and available to lift Russian barrels.

As sanctions intensify, and operational risks escalate, the logistics get harder, longer and more costly.

Diverting one zombie tanker that has repeatedly changed its name and identification details will not keep Vladimir Putin awake at night, but this is not about just one tanker.

Sure, sanctioned export volumes remain stubbornly resilient overall, but flow reliability deteriorates as routing options narrow and oil-on-water distortions increase. We are potentially a few turns of the screw away from Russia’s crude fleet facing a structural vessel supply shortage this year.

As we have said repeatedly, sanctions is a long game and incremental gains are often not immediately visible.

But enforcement has dramatically shifted from designation toward interdiction and physical disruption in the past few weeks, and that materially changes things if it proves to be a sustained trend.

A U-turn in the Baltic may not be as dramatic as yet another US seizure in the Caribbean, but the trend towards direct enforcement against ships is growing along with the implications for markets.

Action against Venezuela may not move overall global oil supplies, but it does shift 800,000 barrels a day of sanctioned oil exports into compliant trades.

The sanctioned markets are increasingly interdependent because they increasingly share a pool of tankers, so action in one jurisdiction has consequences elsewhere.

Given that sanctioned exporters now account for around 20% of global seaborne crude supply, even the smallest changes create ripples.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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