First Drop for Inbound Containers Forecast After Surge Ahead of Tariffs

U.S. retailers and the logistics tracking services for shippers are sounding the alarm on the expected dramatic declines coming for import containers as the Trump tariffs go into effect. The National Retail Federation (NRF) released data predicting the first year-over-year decline in imports in 19 months, noting the tariff uncertainties were coming at an important time of the year in the buying cycle. Data software company Descartes says the data suggests sourcing patterns, tariffs, and trade risks are continuing to evolve.

Descartes released data from its global trade software yet again highlighting that importers have been rushing to get goods into the United States ahead of the imposition of the tariffs. It reports that container imports were up 1.2 percent over March and better than 9 percent year-over-year, surpassing 2.4 million TEU. Descartes notes it was one of the strongest Aprils on record.

The data highlights the efforts to frontload shipments, especially from Asia where Descartes says imports from China were up 5.4 percent from March to April. They note that Chinese-sourced commodities included furniture, plastics, and machinery, all of which were targeted with the tariffs. Dramatic year-over-year gains emerged from countries such as Vietnam (32.5 percent) and Thailand (13.4 percent).

Descartes believes it was having a direct impact on ports as well with it forecasting strong gains in volumes at Los Angeles (13.9 percent) and Long Beach (12 percent). It, however, notes volumes incoming at Savannah and Charleston were down as shippers focused on the faster trans-Pacific routes.

“While container import growth remained strong in April, it may be, in part, because U.S. importers are continuing to pull shipments forward ahead of new U.S. tariffs, in particular the 145% tariff on Chinese goods implemented on April 9,” said Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes. “Since the new elevated tariffs do not apply to goods already in transit when the tariffs were implemented, the tariff impact may be reflected more significantly in May container import volumes.”

It believes this has been a factor in the 8.6 percent increase for U.S. imports in the first four months of 2025. Descartes highlights that China accounted for 33.4 percent of total U.S. inbound container volume in April.

“We are starting to see the true impact of the tariffs on the supply chain,” predicts NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. He notes the tariffs “come at the most important time in the buying process” for retailers. Many retailers are pausing or canceling orders as a result, and small retailers, in particular, “are concerned about what to expect in the coming months and how to order for the future.”

The retailer’s trade association is forecasting a dramatic decline in imports starting in May down to 1.81 million TEU. The NRF predicts volumes will plateau during the summer between 1.7 and 1.8 million TEU per month, a decline of greater than 20 percent per month versus 2024 levels.

The NRF notes that imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections.